Miles of Movies

Best Picture Discussion

Of the films I've picked, I honestly feel sure about only the top 5. This year has been incredibly unpredictable in terms of determining frontrunners, as the precursor awards have gone out to a variety of films. Despite this, the top 5 in my list have all received a multitude of love from all corners, and have directors whose work is also being praised. Though not always, a director's nomination tends to hint at a best picture nomination. Tom McCarthy, Alejandro Inarritu, Ridley Scott, Adam McKay, and George Miller, the directors of these films in that order, are all expected to be nominated as well. That makes those 5 pretty solid.

Beyond that is pretty uncertain. Carol, my #6, has gotten a lot of love in the precursor awards, but doesn't really appear to be a frontrunner. Still, it should make the cut. Room is, from the films I've seen, the best film of 2015 by a light year. But it has missed out on some of the larger precursor awards, mainly the Producers Guild of America awards. Still, it has quite a few down and is more likely than the choices afterwards.

Beyond those 7, I'm not sure that these films will get nominated at all. These are based on precursor awards alone. Straight Outta Compton is likely to get nominated for Best Picture, and maybe nothing else. That doesn't help its chances. Then again, it's gotten more love in the precursor awards than either Bridge of Spies or Sicario. So I'm really not sure.

After the top 10, these films are ones I could see get a nomination, but are very unlikely. Brooklyn and Trumbo are more likely to get recognized for their acting and, perhaps, writing, while Star Wars: The Force Awakens is enjoying a sudden increase in momentum. The final three films, Inside Out, The Danish Girl, and The Hateful EIght might sneak in, but are far less likely.

If I were the judge is simply me saying that the following films are ones that I think should get recognized as truly great films all around. I'm lucky enough to say that I think 5 of those 6 will get nominated.

Best Director Discussion

As I said in my Best Picture discussion, the people most likely to get nominations for direction have films most likely to be nominated for Best Picture. But that doesn't always work. Last year, director Bennett Miller was nominated for his film Foxcatcher, which wasn't nominated for Best Picture. But that rarely happens. I've heard a lot of great things about Todd Haynes' direction of Carol, a film I haven't seen, so I put him above Adam McKay, whose direction I thought was spotty in The Big Short. 

I actually agree with who I think will get nominated, though I've replaced Todd Haynes with Dennis Villeneuve, who did an amazing job directing Sicario. Of the big Oscar contenders, Carol is the one I missed this year. I will hopefully see it soon, but I won't be able to make any judgement calls on it until I see it.

Best Actor Discussion

This is one of the few categories with a definitive frontrunner. Leonardo DiCaprio's work in The Revenant was pretty incredible, and it seems that the predursor awards agree. Beyond him, however, the race is pretty uncertain. Steve Jobs won't get a Best Picture nomination, but it might get the amazing Michael Fassbender nominated. Eddie Redmayne is in a similar situation. Matt Damon was hilarious in The Martian, and is lucky that his movie is getting all of the love that it is in the other categories, or he would likely be sitting this one out. Actors in comedies tend to fair poorly in this race. After Matt Damon, Bryan Cranston has gotten the most attention from precursor awards, so I put him up.

Steve Carell, Will Smith, Paul Dano, and Johnny Depp have all been fighting for that last spot. I put Bryan Cranston in, but it could go to any of these guys. Steve Carell's big disadvantage is that his film is an ensemble. Will Smith's film is unlikely to be recognized for anything else. The same goes for Paul Dano and Johnny Depp. But the precursors have given them a little love, so it's possible.

I haven't seen Trumbo or The Danish Girl so I really can't talk about their leads. But I loved Steve Carell in The Big Short and Johnny Depp was incredible in Black Mass, so I would like to see them get recognized.

Best Actress Discussion

This is the other category with a frontrunner. Brie Larson has won virtually every precursor award, which is great because she and Room deserve it. She is absolutely incredible in the movie. Saoirse Ronan is also fabulous in Brooklyn, and will likely be nominated as well. Cate Blanchett is not necessarily a lead in her film, but the precursors have put her here for the most part, so I will too. Alicia Vikander might get put in the supporting category, but, once again, I'm just going where the precursor awards have gone. Charlotte Rampling is the same deal; she's based on the precursors. Beyond that, Jennifer Lawrence won the Golden Globe for her performance in a comedy, which might get her in. Charlize Theron has gotten some well-deserved love for Mad Max: Fury Road, but doesn't have as many as the aforementioned contenders.

Only three performances this year really stood out to me as worthy. I obviously haven't seen The Danish Girl or Carol, two juggernauts in the female acting branches. So I may have to add a few to this list, after the fact.

Best Supporting Actor Discussion

This category is all over the place. I've put Sylvester Stallone as the guy to get nominated for sure, but even he is not for sure. Apart from that, the other guys could not get nominated just as easily. The trickest part about this category is that any of the actors from Spotlight or The Big Short could end up in this category, as both are true ensemble casts. Idris Elba and Michael Shannon have enjoyed some precursor awards, though they are likely to be the only thing their films are recognized for.

Beyond those, I could see Benicio del Toro's incredible turn in Sicario getting nominated, or Tom Hardy riding the wave that is The Revenant. But precursor awards have not been behind them. Jacob Tremblay could pull a Quvenzhané Wallis, and I really hope he does, but it's unlikely.

This category, more than any of the others, is full of people I want to get nominated, but probably won't. Brie Larson was absolutely spectacular in Room, but I thought Jacob Tremblay was even better. Benicio del Toro, as I said, was amazing in Sicario. Oscar Isaac was really edgy in Ex Machina, and stole the show for me. Mark Ruffalo was the best out of the Spotlight crew and Sylvester Stallone actually was great in Creed. Both deserve to be recognized.

Best Supporting Actress Discussion

This is yet another category without any sure nominees. The only benefit it has is that there are few people to choose from. Kate Winslet won the Golden Globe for her performance in Steve Jobs, one that gave her so much screen time that I would argue that she's a lead. She's definitely not the focus of the film though. Jennifer Jason Leigh has gotten a lot of love lately for The Hateful Eight, and she definitely added a lot to her otherwise boring character. The other three are based on precursor awards alone, though I thought Alicia Vikander was amazing in Ex Machina (not as good as Oscar Isaac, but still). Rachel McAdams could get nominated, but she falls victim to the ensemble cast issue of Spotlight. 

Alicia Vikander gave the best female supporting performane I saw all year, and added layers to her character. Kate Winslet was great as usual, and I liked Jennifer Jason Leigh. But, as with Best Actress, I missed some of the female-heavy films this year.

Best Original Screenplay Discussion

Quentin Tarantino always gets nominated, and Spotlight is the frontrunner for Best Picture. The others are simply there because most of the other Best Picture contenders are adapted from other sources. I wasn't particularly impressed with the final three, though I liked them.

The only original screenplays that were worth true recognition were the top two in contention. Though I had problems with the screenplays of both The Hateful Eight and Spotlight, I found the former to be incredibly entertaining and the latter to be pretty taut.

Best Adapted Screenplay Discussion

The really great writing I saw this year all fell into this category. Steve Jobs was a writer's masterpiece while the writing for The Martian turned it from a serious drama into a comedy. Obviously, I loved the screenplay for Room, which made magic with one of the best premises I've ever seen to anything, be it novel or movie. The Big Short had some great writing that kept it moving along while the screenplay to Brooklyn excellently mixed comedy and romantic drama.

If these five are nominated, I will be very happy, because they all absolutely deserve to be recognized.

Best Original Score Discussion

You all know I love movie music, so this is one of my favorite categories to predict. Unfortunately, it is one of the most unpredictable categories. Precursor awards mean very little in this category, but I tried my best. The clear frontrunners of this race are two legends: Ennio Morricone and John Williams. Both did fantastic jobs on their films. Joining them will likely be Howard Shore for Spotlight, Carter Burwell for Carol, and Ryuichi Sakamoto and Alva Noto for The Revenant.

Junkie XL is a newcomer to this race, but he might get nominated for his amazing work on Mad Max: Fury Road. Thomas Newman, with his 12 nominations and 0 wins, might get a sympathy nomination, though he's done better work. Johann Johannson has been a frequent colaborator with director Dennis Villeneuve. His work on Sicario might get recognized, but I doubt it.

If I were the judge, however, I would definitely give serious recognition to John Williams, who made another incredible score. I would also award Junkie XL, whose soundtrack perfectly blends drama and action. Alan Silvestri, whose work is always ignored, should be recognized for giving The Walk its cinematic feel. Ennio Morricone's score is definitely present in the overture of The Hateful Eight, but is really not that big of a presence elsewhere in the film. Still, he did a great job where it counted. Howard Shore's piano-heavy score for Spotlight was quite good as well.

Best Cinematography Discussion

This is one of those categories that I've paid more attention to this year, as it's a major part of filmmaking. Emmanuel Lubezki did amazing things in The Revenant. Given that he's won the past two years, I'm not sure he will win, but he will definitely be nominated. Roger Deakins is half of the reason Sicario is as good as it is. The film looks and feels absolutely real. John Seale did some pretty great things with Mad Max: Fury Road, and precursor awards tell me that the last two spots will be filled by Ed Lachman for Carol and Janusz Kaminski for Bridge of Spies. The cinematography in The Walk was pretty amazing as well, though, so Dariusz Wolski could get a nomination. So too could Star Wars: The Force Awakens, though that is far less likely than the previous 6 contenders. Spectre and Creed might also find their way into this category.

If I were the judge, The Revenant, Sicario, Mad Max: Fury Road, The Walk, and Spectre would all get recognized. This category is an embarassment of riches this year. The one people keep forgetting is Spectre. That movie may have not been as succesful as Skyfall, but it looked amazing.

Best Visual Effects Discussion

Star Wars: The Force Awakens and Mad Max: Fury Road had the best visual effects of any films I saw this year. Thankfully, others agree. Joining them will probably be The Martian, Ex Machina, and Jurassic World, whose visual effects I thought were actually sub-par. The bear scene from The Revenant put it in the conversation, while many remember how amazing The Walk looked. The two Marvel films could also get nominated, but are unlikely to make the cut.

For me, Mad Max: Fury Road actually had the best visual effects I've ever seen. The sandstorm scene in that film completely blew me away (get it?) and the rest of the film looked pretty great as well. Star Wars: The Force Awakens had a few moments of CGI nonsense, but overall looked pretty amazing. I loved The Walk way more than others did, and its visual effects deserve praise. Ex Machina seemed to have had no visual effects in it at all, which is pretty praise-worthy. The Martian did a pretty good job too.

Best Animated Film Discussion

I love animated films. So it should come as no surprise to you all that the past three years have been disappointing to say the least. The last animated film to come out that I would consider "great" was Wreck-it Ralph in 2012. There were good ones, like last year's The Lego Movie and How to Train Your Dragon 2, but I just want another great kids film. Unfortunately, this year proved not much better. I didn't see The Peanuts Movie, but I've head that it's good. Inside Out and Anomalisa are also good, though in completely different ways. Each have pretty big problems. But this category has five spots, so the filler films are The Good Dinosaur and Shaun the Sheep Movie. Minions might get in there because it's the only other animated film to come out this year that I can name.

As you may have been able to tell, I didn't like this year's animated options. The only ones worth nominating (that I saw) were Inside Out and Anomalisa.